Best of 2017
We here at SaberSmart are huge fans of build-your-own food restaurants like Chipotle, Moe’s, or Subway. The options appear endless, but they must come to an end somewhere.
Not only does this give us a chance to introduce the fascinating topics of combinations and permutations, but it also allows us to update a Business Insider article from 2013 that went pretty viral as well! |
Anyone who has taken an introduction to psychology, social sciences, or a statistics class has heard the old adage, “correlation does not imply causation.”
This rule posits that just because two trends seem to fluctuate in tandem, this common variance is not enough to prove that they are meaningfully related to one another. |
With the Super Bowl between the Patriots and Falcons coming up on Sunday, the internet is flooded with probabilities of which team will win as well as a myriad of other prop bets.
Currently, the Patriots are favored by three points and the predicted score is estimated to be around 28-25. |
The Hidden Probabilities of Roulette
A major mathematical technique used throughout baseball these days is probability. Probability influences baseball more than any other sport since baseball can be broken down into a sequence of one on one battles – the pitcher vs. the batter.
Without further ado, let us dive into a realm where probabilities have been utilized for decades if not centuries, the casino. |
This post is a continuation of our study of probability by examining the popular casino game, roulette. If you missed it, check it out here.
Although the study on independence, and lack thereof, in roulette spins and bets is fascinating, personally we find the examination on the expected values of the main bets more elegant, and beautiful in their inerrant equivalence. |
This is post is the finale of our study of probability by examining the popular casino game, roulette.
As we have mentioned over the last two posts, gambling strategies are popular in casinos to “skew the odd” in a gambler’s favor. A popular strategy for roulette, that is also widely used in currency trading, is The Martingale. |
Mathematical Breakdowns
A simple way to describe a statistic in terms of other variables is through a linear equation. As the name suggests, a linear equation is an equation that makes a straight line when it is graphed.
Linear equations are powerful tools because they allow you to see relationships between similar variables. If you have the same amount of independent equations as unknown variables, you can even solve for them! |
In case you missed the previous installment of Breakdown, we are defining three basic baseball statistics in terms of singles, double, triples, and home runs. Then using those three equations, we will determine a player’s hit distribution for the season!
Unfortunately, we looked at four equations, but found only two that were independent. Luckily, thanks in part to you all, we have found our missing link. |
This week, we plan on explaining what the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus is and what it means, including why it is important, by using a specific example from baseball to illustrate our point.
As the name suggests, the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus is, well, fundamental to calculus and its applications. Naturally then this theorem was discovered and proved before calculus was even invented, by a famous Isaac, but not the one you think. |
2017 Editor Picks
As students of data science, we found the aftermath of the 2016 election fascinating in terms of the discussion major news outlets had regarding the polls.
To begin with, we thought this Forbes article was interesting in admitting the shortcomings of polling, however, it did not do a good job in figuring out what the polling errors actually were in the 2016 election. |
Many of you have probably heard of the Gambler’s Fallacy. This is where a gambler believes past independent events can affect a future outcome. If you want to read more, we discussed this fallacy in depth in our series on the hidden probabilities of Roulette.
The Gambler’s fallacy has a converse however, the Hot Hand fallacy, and it is what we are going to analyze this week. |
Data can provide valuable insights through statistics and other methods of exploratory data analysis.
Graphs and charts provide a great way to communicate data, as well as a method to provide awareness on the stories they can tell. Unfortunately, there are too many incidents of graphs misrepresenting data and consequent conclusions. |