This gummy bear is the real champion
We promised win probabilities for every game of the 2018 MLB postseason and we plan on delivering. Check this page before every game for updated game and series win probabilities!
Read more about our SaberSmart Simulator here, and our Runs Scored/Allowed Simulator here, here, or here. FiveThirtyEight's Elo predictions can be found here.
Now that the Wild Card Game is finally over, let's get this show on the road.
Historical MLB money lines can be found here, and a chart to convert them to win percentages can be found here. This is how all of our Vegas probabilities are generated. World Series: BOS vs LAD Game 1: 10/23/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 54.9%, LAD 45.1% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 51.4%, LAD 48.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 64.9%, LAD 35.1% Vegas: BOS 63.6%, LAD 36.4% Final Score: BOS 8 - 4 Overall Winner (10/22/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 65.8%, LAD 34.2% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 54.1%, LAD 45.9% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 60%, LAD 40% Game 2: 10/24/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 55.3%, LAD 44.7% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 51.8%, LAD 48.2% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 62.0%, LAD 38.0% Vegas: BOS 59.5%, LAD 40.5% Final Score: BOS 4 - 2 Overall Winner (10/23/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 74.9%, LAD 25.1% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 69.6%, LAD 30.4% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 72%, LAD 28% Game 3: 10/26/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 55.3%, LAD 44.7% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 52.6%, LAD 47.4% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 44.4%, LAD 55.6% Vegas: BOS 35.7%, LAD 64.3% Final Score: LAD 3 - 2 Overall Winner (10/25/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 87.3%, LAD 12.7% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 84.1%, LAD 15.9% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 86%, LAD 14% Game 4: 10/27/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 55.1%, LAD 44.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 52.5%, LAD 47.5% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 49.2%, LAD 50.8% Vegas: BOS 51.2%, LAD 48.8% Final Score: BOS 9 - 6 Overall Winner (10/26/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 76.2%, LAD 23.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 72.1%, LAD 27.9% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 75%, LAD 25% Game 5: 10/28/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 55.4%, LAD 44.6% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 53.2%, LAD 46.8% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 51.6%, LAD 48.4% Vegas: BOS 40%, LAD 60% Final Score: BOS 5 - 1 Overall Winner (10/27/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 91.1%, LAD 8.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 89.3%, LAD 10.7% FiveThirtyEight Elo: BOS 93%, LAD 7%
Based off of their Bayesian estimates of true talent, as measured by win percentage, we are 92.7% confident that Red Sox are a better team than the Dodgers. However, this does leave a slight 7.3% chance that the Dodgers are, in fact, the better team before home field advantage is considered. The Dodgers actually had a better winning percentage on the road than at home this year, which gives them a 3% road advantage, while the Red Sox have a smaller 2.8% home advantage.
The Dodgers also under performed their Pythagorean wins by ten, hinting at the fact they could have been unlucky this season. Our simulator does not take into account pitchers or any player statistics at all. Our other model based off of runs scored and allowed at home and on the road, also give the Red Sox the edge. 
NLCS: MIL vs LAD Game 1: 10/12/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 50.1%, LAD 49.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 44.4%, LAD 55.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 44.8%, LAD 55.2% Vegas: MIL 42.5%, LAD 57.5% Final Score: MIL 6- 5 Overall Winner (10/11/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 48.5%, LAD 51.5% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 48.0%, LAD 52.0% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 46%, LAD 54% Game 2: 10/13/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 50.1%, LAD 49.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 44.4%, LAD 55.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 50%, LAD 50% Vegas: MIL 45.5%, LAD 54.5% Final Score: LAD 4 - 3 Overall Winner (10/12/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 64.1%, LAD 35.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 65.1%, LAD 34.9% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 54%, LAD 46% Game 3: 10/15/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 48.2%, LAD 51.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 55.6%, LAD 44.4% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 39.2%, LAD 60.8% Vegas: MIL 36.4%, LAD 63.6% Final Score: MIL 4 - 0 Overall Winner (10/13/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 48.2%, LAD 51.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 51.4%, LAD 48.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 36%, LAD 64% Game 4: 10/16/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 48.2%, LAD 51.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 55.6%, LAD 44.4% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 39.9%, LAD 60.1% Vegas: MIL 41.7%, LAD 58.3% Final Score: LAD 2 - 1 Overall Winner (10/15/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 67.7%, LAD 32.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 67.7%, LAD 32.3% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 61%, LAD 39% Game 5: 10/17/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 48.2%, LAD 51.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 55.6%, LAD 44.4% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 40.0%, LAD 60.0% Vegas: MIL 35.7%, LAD 64.3% Final Score: LAD 5 - 2 Overall Winner (10/16/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 49.7%, LAD 50.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 44.4%, LAD 55.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 45%, LAD 55% Game 6: 10/19/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 50.1%, LAD 49.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 44.4%, LAD 55.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 50.5%, LAD 49.5% Vegas: MIL 45.0%, LAD 55.0% Final Score: MIL 7 - 2 Overall Winner (10/18/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 25.1%, LAD 74.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 19.7%, LAD 80.3% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 25%, LAD 75% Game 7: 10/20/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 50.1%, LAD 49.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 44.4%, LAD 55.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 51.0%, LAD 49.0% Vegas: MIL 47.6%, LAD 52.4% Final Score: LAD 5 - 1 Overall Winner (10/19/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 50.1%, LAD 49.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 44.4%, LAD 55.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 51%, LAD 49%
Based off of their Bayesian estimates of true talent, as measured by win percentage, we are 57.2% confident that Dodgers are a better team than the Brewers. However, this leaves a 42.8% chance that the Brewers are, in fact, the better team before home field advantage is considered. The Dodgers actually had a better winning percentage on the road than at home this year, which gives them a 3% road advantage, while the Brewers have a larger 7% home advantage. This is why our simulator gives any game at Miller a 50-50 probability for both teams. Our simulator does not take into account pitchers or any player statistics at all. Based on runs scored and allowed at home and on the road, the Dodgers have the edge.
ALCS: BOS vs HOU Game 1: 10/13/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 49.7%, HOU 50.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 46.9%, HOU 53.1% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 55.7%, HOU 44.3% Vegas: BOS 55.6%, HOU 44.4% Final Score: HOU 7 - 2 Overall Winner (10/12/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 51.6%, HOU 48.4% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 45.9%, HOU 54.1% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 48%, HOU 52% Game 2: 10/14/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 49.7%, HOU 50.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 46.9%, HOU 53.1% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 47.5%, HOU 52.5% Vegas: BOS 43%, HOU 57% Final Score: BOS 7 - 5 Overall Winner (10/13/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 36.1%, HOU 63.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 31.4%, HOU 68.6% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 30%, HOU 70% Game 3: 10/16/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 52.1%, HOU 47.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 49.9%, HOU 50.1% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 44.6%, HOU 55.4% Vegas: BOS 43.5%, HOU 56.5% Final Score: BOS 8 - 2 Overall Winner (10/15/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 52.0%, HOU 48.0% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 47.3%, HOU 52.7% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 41%, HOU 59% Game 4: 10/17/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 52.1%, HOU 47.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 49.9%, HOU 50.1% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 43.2%, HOU 56.8% Vegas: BOS 41.7%, HOU 58.3% Final Score: BOS 8 - 6 Overall Winner (10/16/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 69.8%, HOU 30.2% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 66.0%, HOU 34.0% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 67%, HOU 33% Game 5: 10/18/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 52.1%, HOU 47.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 49.9%, HOU 50.1% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 39.7%, HOU 60.3% Vegas: BOS 34.5%, HOU 65.5% Final Score: BOS 4 - 1 Overall Winner (10/17/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 87.9%, HOU 12.1% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 85.9%, HOU 14.1% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 88%, HOU 12%
Based off of their Bayesian estimates of true talent, as measured by win percentage, we are 57.8% confident that Red Sox are a better team than the Astros. However, this leaves a 42.2% chance that the Astros are, in fact, the better team before home field advantage is considered. The Astros actually had a better winning percentage on the road than at home this year, which gives them a 6% road advantage, while the Red Sox only have a 5% home advantage. This is why our simulator gives any game at Fenway a 50-50 probability for both teams. Our simulator does not take into account pitchers or any player statistics at all. Based on runs scored and allowed at home and on the road, the Astros have the edge.
NLDS 1: MIL vs COL Game 1: 10/04/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 55.2%, COL 44.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 56.6%, COL 43.4% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 57.8%, COL 42.2% Vegas: MIL 63%, COL 37% Final Score: MIL 3 - 1 Overall Winner (10/3/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 55.7%, COL 44.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 62.8%, COL 37.2% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 57%, COL 43% Game 2: 10/05/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 55.2%, COL 44.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 56.6%, COL 43.4% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 61.1%, COL 38.9% Vegas: MIL 63.2%, COL 36.8% Final Score: MIL 4 - 0 Overall Winner (10/4/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 72.5%, COL 27.5% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 78.4%, COL 21.6% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 71%, COL 29% Game 3: 10/07/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 49.8%, COL 50.2% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 57.3%, COL 42.7% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 44.3%, COL 55.7% Vegas: MIL 42.2%, COL 57.8% Final Score: MIL 6 - 0 Overall Winner (10/6/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: MIL 88.7%, COL 11.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: MIL 92.1%, COL 7.9% FiveThirtyEight Elo: MIL 87%, COL 13%
Based off of their Bayesian estimates of true talent, as measured by win percentage, we are 70.7% confident that Milwaukee is a better team than the Rockies. However, this leaves a 29.3% chance that the Rockies are, in fact, the better team before home field advantage is considered.
NLDS 2: LAD vs ATL
Game 1: 10/04/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 52.4%, ATL 47.6% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 50.0%, ATL 50.0% FiveThirtyEight: LAD 61.1%, ATL 38.9% Vegas: LAD 65.5%, ATL 34.5% Final Score: LAD 6 - 0 Overall Winner (10/3/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 50.9%, ATL 49.1% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 55.8%, ATL 44.2% FiveThirtyEight Elo: LAD 71%, ATL 29% Game 2: 10/05/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 52.4%, ATL 47.6% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 50.0%, ATL 50.0% FiveThirtyEight: LAD 66.5%, ATL 33.5% Vegas: LAD 73%, ATL 27% Final Score: LAD 3 - 0 Overall Winner (10/4/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 68.8%, ATL 31.2% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 74.5%, ATL 25.5% FiveThirtyEight Elo: LAD 85%, ATL 15% Game 3: 10/07/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 56.0%, ATL 44.0% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 57.9%, ATL 42.1% FiveThirtyEight: LAD 64.7%, ATL 35.3% Vegas: LAD 63%, ATL 37% Final Score: ATL 6 - 5 Overall Winner (10/6/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 86.9%, ATL 13.1% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 91.1%, ATL 8.9% FiveThirtyEight Elo: LAD 94%, ATL 6% Game 4: 10/08/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 56.0%, ATL 44.0% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 57.9%, ATL 42.1% FiveThirtyEight: LAD 59.1% ATL 40.9% Vegas: LAD 59.5%, ATL 40.5% Final Score: LAD 6 - 2 Overall Winner (10/7/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: LAD 75.1%, ATL 24.9% Runs Scored/Allowed: LAD 78.9%, ATL 21.1% FiveThirtyEight Elo: LAD 85%, ATL 15%
Based off of their Bayesian estimates of true talent, as measured by win percentage, we are 85.0% confident that the Dodgers are a better team than the Braves. However, this leaves a 15.0% chance that the Braves are, in fact, the better team before home field advantage is considered.
If this is surprising to you, since the Dodgers only won 1 more game than the Braves in the first 162 games of the season,LAD's Pythagorean record of 102 - 60 also indicates that they were unlucky, or playing below their skill level. Unfortunately for LAD, ATL's amazing road performance almost negates that advantage. 
ALDS 1: BOS vs NYY
Game 1: 10/05/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 55.6%, NYY 44.4% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 55.7%, NYY 43.4% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 64.7%, NYY 35.3% Vegas: BOS 63.0%, NYY 37.0% Final Score: BOS 5 - 4 Overall Winner (10/4/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 56.2%, NYY 43.8% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 55.2%, NYY 44.8% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 56%, NYY 44% Game 2: 10/06/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 55.6%, NYY 44.4% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 55.7%, NYY 43.4% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 55.5%, NYY 44.5% Vegas: BOS 45.5%, NYY 54.5% Final Score: NYY 6 - 2 Overall Winner (10/5/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 72.8%, NYY 27.2% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 71.8%, NYY 28.2% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 69%, NYY 31% Game 3: 10/08/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 49.8%, NYY 50.2% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 48.4%, NYY 51.6% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 41.5%, NYY 58.5% Vegas: BOS 37.7%, NYY 62.3% Final Score: BOS 16 - 1 Overall Winner (10/7/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 52.7%, NYY 47.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 51.2%, NYY 48.8% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 47%, NYY 53% Game 4: 10/09/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 49.8%, NYY 50.2% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 48.4%, NYY 51.6% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 48.0%, NYY 52.0% Vegas: BOS 40.5%, NYY 59.5% Final Score: BOS 4 - 3 Overall Winner (10/8/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: BOS 77.7%, NYY 22.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: BOS 77.1%, NYY 22.9% FiveThirtyEight: BOS 78%, NYY 22%
Based off of their Bayesian estimates of true talent, as measured by win percentage, we are 73.0% confident that the Red Sox are a better team than the Yankees. However, this leaves a 27.0% chance that the Yankees are, in fact, the better team before home field advantage is considered.
This could be a tight series, and we are excited to see how it progresses. 
ALDS 2: HOU vs CLE Game 1: 10/05/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: HOU 53.6%, CLE 46.4% Runs Scored/Allowed: HOU 52.5%, CLE 47.5% FiveThirtyEight: HOU 64.7%, CLE 35.3% Vegas: HOU 59.5%, CLE 40.5% Final Score: HOU 7 - 2 Overall Winner (10/4/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: HOU 58.4%, CLE 41.6% Runs Scored/Allowed: HOU 58.0%, CLE 42.0% FiveThirtyEight: HOU 63%, CLE 37% Game 2: 10/06/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: HOU 53.6%, CLE 46.4% Runs Scored/Allowed: HOU 52.5%, CLE 47.5% FiveThirtyEight: HOU 62.2%, CLE 37.8% Vegas: HOU 58.5%, CLE 41.5% Final Score: HOU 3 - 1 Overall Winner (10/5/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: HOU 75.5%, CLE 24.5% Runs Scored/Allowed: HOU 75.5%, CLE 24.5% FiveThirtyEight: HOU 77%, CLE 23% Game 3: 10/08/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: HOU 55.9%, CLE 44.1% Runs Scored/Allowed: HOU 56.8%, CLE 43.2% FiveThirtyEight: HOU 50.3%, CLE 49.7% Vegas: HOU 44.2%, CLE 55.8% Final Score: HOU 11 - 3 Overall Winner (10/7/2018): SaberSmart Simulator: HOU 91.0%, CLE 9.0% Runs Scored/Allowed: HOU 91.2%, CLE 8.8% FiveThirtyEight: HOU 90%, CLE 10%
Based off of their Bayesian estimates of true talent, as measured by win percentage, we are 89.5% confident that the Astros are a better team than the Indians. However, this leaves a 10.5% chance that Cleveland are, in fact, the better team before home field advantage is considered.
Many expect this series to be a cakewalk for the Astros, and with their Pythagorean record at an unbelievable 109-53, we believe that it is likely that Houston will continue their championship defense. 
AL Wild Card: OAK vs NYY
Game 1: 10/03/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: NYY 56.7%, OAK 43.3% Runs Scored/Allowed: NYY 51.7%, OAK 48.3% FiveThirtyEight: NYY 59.5%, OAK 40.5% Vegas: NYY 67.2%, OAK 32.8% Final Score: NYY 7 - 2 
NL Wild Card: COL vs CHI
Game 1: 10/02/2018 SaberSmart Simulator: CHI 56.6%, COL 43.4% Runs Scored/Allowed: CHI 53.8%, COL 46.2% FiveThirtyEight: CHI 53.7%, COL 46.3% Vegas: CHI 58.3%, COL 41.7% Final Score: COL 2 - 1 
As always, our code can be found on our Github. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! The SaberSmart Team P.S. If you enjoyed this article, and need something off Amazon anyway, why not support this site by clicking through the banner at the bottom of the page? As a member of the Amazon Affiliates program, we may receive a commission on any purchases. All revenue goes towards the continued hosting of this site.
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