Predicting who will win baseball games is a hard task. Baseball is notorious for its high degree of luck, regression to the mean, and the inability for anyone to judge a player’s “true” talent based off of only a few games.
For examples of the small sample size issue, here’s some extra content from Fangraphs, BP, and myself. First, The Meaning of Small Sample Data, by Dave Cameron. Next, here is
Predicting MLB Records from a “Small” Sample Size written by yours truly. Finally here is Baseball Therapy: It’s a Small Sample Size After All by Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus.
Now, on August 21, 2019, the Houston Astros played the Detroit Tigers, in Houston. Here's the historic gamecast link.
Now that most of the NBA teams have passed the halfway point of the season, we recalculated our end-of-season win total predictions and playoff probabilities. In truth, we don’t think that the second half of the season matters that much, in terms of playoff probability.
Since the top eight teams from each conference make the playoffs, the likelihood that even the top four teams in wins per conference at mid-season would fall out of the top eight at the end of the regular season is astronomically small. However, the second half does matter in terms of the teams fighting for the last couple of spots, as well as, of course, playoff seeding.
With the NBA back in action this week, we are launching our inaugural NBA Predictions to see how the league will shape out this season. While the Warriors are the obvious favorite to lead the the league in wins, since a majority of the league’s 30 teams make it to the playoffs, whether you agree with that or not, the battle for the last few seeds always goes down to the wire.
Here's how we generated our 2018-2019 NBA playoff and win predictions:
We promised win probabilities for every game of the 2018 MLB postseason and we plan on delivering. Check this page before every game for updated game and series win probabilities!
Read more about our SaberSmart Simulator here, and our Runs Scored/Allowed Simulator here, here, or here. FiveThirtyEight's Elo predictions can be found here.
Predicting the AL Wild Card Rumbledome... Because the NL is a Beautiful, Unpredictable Maelstrom of Chaos
The Rumbledome. All or Nothing. The Play-In Game. The MLB Wild Card has had many names since its inception in 2012. While some fans may not be on board with it, or the MLB playoffs’ current structure in general, the one thing the Rumbledome has always provided has been drama.
The second wild card spot provides teams with hope, that even though they weren’t the best, by definition, there is still a chance of obtaining the perennial glory of a World Series Championship. You may not believe it, but the 2014 World Series featured two Wild Card teams, with the Giants eventually giving the Royals the best possible postseason winning percentage for a World Series loser before winning it all themselves.