With the so-called “hard” trade deadline approaching fast for MLB Teams, (now in a matter of hours!), we decided to once again fire up our servers and use our Bayesian model to predict each team’s end of season record, and consequently their shot of making the playoffs. This season eliminated August waiver trades, a past opportunity to grab a player once a team’s stance has been made clearer. The most famous waiver trade perhaps was Justin Verlander moving from Detroit to Houston for the Astros’ historic World Series run in 2017. July 31 now represents a true, hard trade deadline for the first time in Major League Baseball history. If teams miss the opportunity to add to their clubs via trade by that date, there is no backup plan.
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