SaberSmart
  • Home
  • Blog
    • Throwback
  • Playoff Odds
    • MLB >
      • 2019 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Win Division
        • Win WildCard
        • Expected Wins
      • 2018 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Win Division
        • Win WildCard
        • Expected Wins
      • 2017 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Win Division
        • Win WildCard
        • Expected Wins
    • NBA >
      • 2018 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Expected Wins
      • 2017 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Expected Wins
  • About
    • Contact
    • Comment Policy

Predicting MLB Records from a “Small” Sample Size

4/25/2018

Comments

 
Picture
Joe Buck, perhaps discussing small sample sizes. Credit: Tom Ley, Deadspin
The Major League Baseball season has only been in action for around a month, yet some fans have already declared their team’s season as “over”. While this may be true for the Miami Marlins, how can we use statistics to see how a team’s start will affect their overall season? Many pundits simply say a baseball team is on pace to win and lose a certain number of games by simply multiplying a team’s current winning percentage over 162 games.

For example, here’s a silly article by CBS Sports that will be totally irrelevant come October:
More than half of MLB teams are on pace to win or lose 100 games in 2018. That article was the inspiration behind this post; if you are going to make outlandish claims, at least use math to support it.

Read More
Comments

    Archives

    August 2019
    July 2019
    January 2019
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    April 2018
    February 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016

    Categories

    All
    Analytics
    Big Data
    Computer Science
    Economics
    Essay
    Football
    Gambling
    History
    Mathematics
    MLB Teams
    NBA Teams
    NFL Teams
    Philosophy
    Super Bowl
    Triple Crown
    World Series

    RSS Feed

    Follow @sabersmartblog
    Tweets by sabersmartblog
 Support this site by clicking through the banner below:
  • Home
  • Blog
    • Throwback
  • Playoff Odds
    • MLB >
      • 2019 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Win Division
        • Win WildCard
        • Expected Wins
      • 2018 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Win Division
        • Win WildCard
        • Expected Wins
      • 2017 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Win Division
        • Win WildCard
        • Expected Wins
    • NBA >
      • 2018 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Expected Wins
      • 2017 >
        • Total Playoff
        • Expected Wins
  • About
    • Contact
    • Comment Policy