 Joe Buck, perhaps discussing small sample sizes. Credit: Tom Ley, Deadspin The Major League Baseball season has only been in action for around a month, yet some fans have already declared their team’s season as “over”. While this may be true for the Miami Marlins, how can we use statistics to see how a team’s start will affect their overall season? Many pundits simply say a baseball team is on pace to win and lose a certain number of games by simply multiplying a team’s current winning percentage over 162 games.
For example, here’s a silly article by CBS Sports that will be totally irrelevant come October: More than half of MLB teams are on pace to win or lose 100 games in 2018. That article was the inspiration behind this post; if you are going to make outlandish claims, at least use math to support it.
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